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Title: OVERVIEW OF MODELLING THE RISK ASSESSMENT PROCESS IN APPLIED PROJECT MANAGEMENT
Author: Andreica, M; Nitu, B; Visan, C
Abstract: The real life implies that risks, vulnerabilities and threats are connected or can be decomposed down to primary (basic) events. It is recommended to model this by taking into accounts the conditional probabilities and strength of the links between the events. The best structure that reflects the above is a Bayesion Network (BN). Since building BN directly, in a naive mode, depends on the ability/expertise of the assessor, the proposed solution is to split in two phases: 1. Applying consecrated techniques (FTA, FMEA, Ishikawa diagrams, FAST, etc.) - by each team, under supervision of Risk Manager 2. Deriving the BN from resulted graphical models by a consistent procedure and performing the analysis - by a Risk Analysis Group, including the Risk Manager, while the results must be approved by a Risk Committee. Such BN has to be constantly updated and the Project/Organization shall continuously "learn". Therefore, the organization may commence with expert assessments on the basic events, but it will grow to build a database by registering all the modifications appeared (building historical data), in order to permanently refine the assessment. Such integrated qualitative-quantitative may prove to be effective approach - although computing intensive - once the adequate tools are used.
Source: METALURGIA INTERNATIONAL
Publication Year: 2009
Volume: 14
Issue nr: 7
Pages: 139 - 144
Science Code: Metallurgy & Metallurgical Engineering
Tags: risk analysis; vulnerability; contingency models; knowledge management; project management
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